How the 2010 World Championship can be won and lost

Predicting the 2010 World Champion

The 2010 World Championship has been incredibly close but now there are just three drivers left with a realistic chance of claiming the title.

Mark Webber may be the current favourite but his championship lead is vulnerable. Only fourteen points separate the Australian from Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso, and although that might sound like a decent buffer, it equals a lead of just four points under the old scoring system. The title fight is wide open.

If either Webber, Vettel or Alonso can win two of the final three races, they will almost certainly become World Champion. If they can win all three the title is guaranteed.

On the other hand, a single DNF could spell disaster.

Vettel must feel very confident that he can win two of the remaining races in 2010. He has been quicker than Mark Webber over the second half of the season and has plenty of momentum behind him at the moment. This gives Sebastian plenty of scope for race victories because Red Bull are expected to be strong in Korea, and finished 1-2 at Abu Dhabi last year.

Webber has a slight advantage in the standings but he must win at least one of the final races if he is to become champion. He is in a tricky position mentally because he has more to lose than his rivals who can afford to be a little more aggressive.

Alonso is still a serious threat and his championship trump card may come in the shape of Felipe Massa. Whilst the Red Bull drivers are fighting each other, Alonso has the full support of his teammate and that could be crucial in Brazil where Ferrari and Felipe have always been strong. Ferrari's pace at Monza and Singapore proved they have a versatile car, but Red Bull was dominant in Suzuka and remains the team to beat.

The following four hypothetical situations explain how the championship can be won and lost.

Webber takes one race victory from the final three races.
If Mark Webber claimed victory in just one of the final three races, he would become World Champion as long as he finished the other two events in fifth place or higher. As such, a win in Korea would take a massive amount of pressure off the Australian, and in that scenario he could feasibly wrap up the title in Brazil (although that would probably require another victory).

Webber finishes each race in second place whilst Vettel and Alonso share the wins.
Webber can take the championship just by finishing second in each of the final races, providing that neither Alonso or Vettel win all three. He would claim the title by just three points should Vettel or Alonso scrape together two wins.

Webber takes one race victory but retires from another.
If Webber won the Korean Grand Prix but retired in Brazil, he would have to win the final race in Abu Dhabi to be guaranteed the championship. Webber is the only challenger that can recover from a DNF in the final races but would still have to win the other two races he finishes to be sure.

Webber and Vettel crash in Korea, Alonso wins.
If two of the three challengers retire in the same race whilst the other takes victory (gaining a massive 25 point jump on his rivals), the race winner will be the clear championship favourite. For example, if Webber and Vettel both retired in Korea, and Alonso won the race, it would be near impossible for Vettel to become champion and Webber would have to win the final two races. Alternatively, if Webber wins in Korea whilst the others DNF, he can seal the championship in Brazil with a simple podium finish.

Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button can still win the World Championship mathematically but they need a burst of solid results whilst the others hit problems. That's entirely possible given the unpredictable nature of the 2010 season but not all that likely.

What do you think will happen over the last three races, and who do you think will be World Champion? Leave your predictions below!

Brazilian Grand prix tickets and Abu Dhabi Grand Prix tickets can still be snapped up!

Posted by Martin Porter. - Follow him on twitter @mpondaweb.

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