News is emerging that indicates Mercedes is poised to end its Formula One relationship with McLaren in favour of a new collaboration with Brawn GP. Mercedes’ factory support is highly valuable as other car makers leave the sport, so their potential switch from McLaren to Brawn would have a huge impact on the balance of power in F1. Whilst Mercedes forges closer ties with Brawn, McLaren is getting ready to build their own powerplants and could takeover BMW’s now defunct engine program.

Mercedes first started Grand Prix racing in 1923. The company was successful from the start and dominated the European scene along with Auto Union, but abandoned the sport when World War Two broke out. The manufacturer then returned to Formula One in 1954 and commandingly won the next two World Championships with Juan Manuel Fangio.

Despite the success, Mercedes withdrew from all motorsport at the end of 1955 when one of their cars was involved in the Le Mans disaster that killed 55 spectators.

Mercedes started competing again with touring and sports cars throughout the seventies, and in the early nineties had a very successful Group C team run by Peter Sauber. The car maker then re-entered Formula One with Sauber in 1993 and supplied the team with engines, but within two years had switched their support to McLaren instead. The partnership with McLaren has blossomed ever since, helped by the team’s competitiveness, and together they have won 59 Grands Prix.

The relationship between McLaren and Mercedes extends much further than the standard engine supply deal. Mercedes is actually part owner of McLaren having bought a 40% share of the company in 2000, and the two companies also built the SLR sportscar together. The team’s F1 cars are painted silver, partly in deference to Mercedes’ national racing colours, and McLaren will often hold PR events like their annual launch at the Mercedes factory instead of their own.

Together, McLaren and Mercedes have the best resources of any team in Formula One. They have been championship contenders in eight of the last twelve seasons so would be under huge pressure to continue that run of consistent success without each other.

Evidence is mounting to suggest that a split is on the cards.

Next year McLaren will introduce the MP4-12C road car. It will be a fantastic piece of kit with a twin turbo V8 engine that produces 600bhp.

There are a few things about this car that point towards a fractured relationship with Mercedes.

The first is that it will not use a Mercedes engine. McLaren built the SLR with Mercedes, and have also helped in the development of other models, so it’s interesting they have decided to make this car by themselves. It is the first time that McLaren have built their own engine for anything so it’s an exciting new development for the company. Instead of using the backing and support of Mercedes like they have in the past, McLaren are going it alone.

The car is also being launched the same time as the new Mercedes SLS AMG. The supercar market is very competitive given the small number of people who can afford to buy in, so the MP4-12C is placing McLaren and Mercedes into direct competition.

Not only have McLaren rejected Mercedes’ help with the MP4-12C, they’re trying to take some of their market share as well.

Whilst McLaren and Mercedes have always been close, their partnership has not been a perfect marriage.

The Mercedes Board of Directors were reportedly very upset when Ron Dennis sold 30% of McLaren to Bahrain in 2007. The deal was supposedly done without Mercedes’ knowledge (despite them owning 40%) and it prevented them from carrying out plans to increase their own share of the business.

Mercedes was also troubled by spy scandal in 2007 that damaged their reputation, even though they had not been directly involved.

Meanwhile, McLaren has right to be frustrated with the Mercedes engine failures that possibly cost the team championships in 2000, 2003 and 2005. It is only since homologated engines came into effect that Mercedes units have stopped breaking down.

The two companies may soon be going their separate ways. Both have good reasons to end their alliance.

Ron Dennis has always admired Enzo Ferrari and the automotive empire that he created. The McLaren boss would love to achieve a similar distinction with his own company and has taken a step closer to that ambition with the MP4-12C supercar. It now seems that he would like to take another big step by cutting ties with Mercedes.

The German manufacturer would also benefit from the split by starting a more cost effective relationship with Brawn where they have more control over the team’s management.

The Mercedes affiliation with Brawn GP has come about through chance. The new team was lucky to receive Mercedes engines this year because there is a rule that states manufacturers can only support two teams on the grid. Mercedes was already supplying engines to McLaren and Force India, but made a special arrangement with the FIA so they could guarantee Brawn’s survival. The fact that Brawn should not really have the engines explains why there is no Mercedes branding on the car.

The deal was for just twelve months and was only put together to ensure the team survived. However, Brawn have now become a very big part of Mercedes’ Formula One plans.

The German manufacturer is considering buying into Brawn, and some sources indicate the team will be wholly owned by Mercedes within a few years.

Mercedes appear to be moving towards an arrangement where they can take more control of an F1 outfit at a cheaper price. Their influence at Brawn is potentially indicated by the news that Nico Rosberg is joining the team next year. The company helped sponsor Rosberg’s junior career and have always wanted him in one of their cars, so his appointment at Brawn could be the result of Mercedes’ direct involvement.

If Brawn develops into the new Mercedes factory squad, whilst the number of manufacturers in the sport decreases, it would give the team a huge amount of power within Formula One. That is very significant when you consider they didn’t look like surviving just ten months ago.

McLaren, on the other hand, would essentially become a privateer. Their engine future lies with in-house production.

There are some suggestions that McLaren will buy BMW’s F1 engine production facilities now that BMW has little use for them. There could be some difficulty doing that with QADBAK involved but it would probably work out well for McLaren. BMW has always produced decent Grand Prix engines and their resources are now there for the taking.

McLaren and BMW also have an existing relationship. The legendary McLaren F1 sportscar used a BMW engine, and although a lot has changed since it was released in 1992, there is still that link between the two companies.

Alternatively, McLaren could just ramp up its own engine department without any outside assistance. With standardised engines, rev limits, and development freezes, it’s probably not a bad time to start building a Formula One engine.

There are some rumours that suggest that McLaren and Mercedes will split as early as next year, and whilst that is unlikely given the timeframe, it does appear the bond between the two companies is now rather fragile. Both Norbert Haug and Martin Whitmarsh have said there is no change in the relationship between the two companies, and whilst that may be true, a time will come in the years ahead when their individual ambitions drive them apart.

Mercedes’ future plans are going to have a very big impact on Formula One.