One of the biggest mysteries in Formula One at the moment is who will drive for Scuderia Toro Rosso in 2009. The Red Bull junior outfit is the only team that still has two seats available next year and there is no clear indication yet who will be filling either one.

Sebastien Bourdais, Sebastien Buemi, and Takuma Sato all tested for Toro Rosso last week, and if the team was hiring their drivers on the basis of those times alone they would be signing Sato and Bourdais.

However, their decision is not going to be so straightforward.

Sebastian Bourdais has said that Toro Rosso’s 2009 drivers will need to bring sponsorship money to the table. He told reporters “the problem is purely financial. The team needs some money and I think until they find a driver package which is fast enough and has got the funds, or they find a solution themselves, they won’t find a solution for their line up.”

With that in mind Bourdais could very well be out of Formula One next year.

The situation might now have changed since Red Bull has bought the team back from Gerhard Berger, but they would still most likely prefer a profitable driver.

Bourdais would have every right to feel upset if he is dropped by Toro Rosso having done a solid job in his debut year. He didn’t set the world alight but he was not as far behind Sebastian Vettel as many people may think.

Yes, Vettel took pole position and victory for the team at Monza, but that win could just have easily have been Bourdais’. The Frenchman was excellent in the wet practice sessions and qualified fourth with more fuel on board than everyone in front of him. If his car hadn’t stalled on the grid he would have finished on the podium and possibly challenged for the win because he was lapping quicker than his teammate for most of the afternoon. His fastest lap was a cool 1.3 seconds faster than anything Vettel could manage, and only Raikkonen was able to match his pace towards the end.

The quickest Toro Rosso driver at Monza did not necessarily win the race.

It was a similar story at Spa Francorchamps. Bourdais drove brilliantly around the most challenging F1 circuit of them all and was sitting in third position when the final lap started. The late rain shower that caused so much drama cost Sebastien dearly because he dropped to seventh behind the cars that stopped for dry tyres. He was within minutes of a podium result.

The multiple CART champion also had to put up with some bad luck throughout the season, most notably the engine failure in Australia that cost him fourth place, and the penalty he received in Japan that ranked amongst the worst stewarding decisions of all time.

Sebastien certainly isn’t a poor set of hands behind the wheel. He competed with success in Formula 3000 and at Le Mans, and it is impossible to forget the four years that he spent crushing the opposition in Champ Car racing. The guy knows how to drive, and could flourish in a second year at Toro Rosso in a team that isn’t so focused around Vettel.

Keeping Bourdais would also provide Red Bull’s secondary squad with an element of continuity, which could be an important factor in building up the team.

Having said that, Sebastien made a number of critical mistakes throughout 2008 and results speak louder than words. He finished in the points just twice whilst Vettel did so on nine occasions. He was not as far behind his teammate as you may think, but he was still behind. Simple as that. He is not going to be the next superstar of Formula One.

Although a second year with Toro Rosso would be fully justified, the team would be more interested in finding the next Vettel.

Sebastian Buemi is one man they have their eye on.

Earlier this year Franz Tost said of Buemi “I think we can take the risk to have Sebastien with us in 2009” which is a good sign for the Swiss youngster. Dietrich Mateschitz, the most powerful bull of them all, also said it was “very likely” that Buemi would be driving for Toro Rosso next year.

It sounds very much like the new Sebastien has the seat.

Equally encouraging is that he got to drive the Medical Car during the final three rounds of the Formula One season after the regular driver was taken ill. Alexander Wurz was drafted into that role at short notice in time for the Singapore Grand Prix, but it would appear that Red Bull promptly got in touch with the FIA to have the drive given to Buemi from then on. The FIA wouldn’t have made that decision on their own, given the known reliability of Wurz, so Red Bull must have made those arrangements because they wanted Buemi learn the flyaway circuits before the 09 season. There aren’t many other possible conclusions.

Buemi has long been a part of the Red Bull family and has mixed testing duties with GP2 racing for the past two years. He would be a very logical choice for the team.

However, he has never had a particularly stellar year in any racing category before and is yet to claim a championship of any kind outside of karting. He only won two races in GP2, one of which was thanks almost entirely to luck with the weather, and took just four wins from two seasons in the Formula 3 Euroseries. His most competitive year was 2005 when he took seven Formula BMW race victories, although he still missed out on the title.

He is definitely quick, but perhaps lacks some consistency.

He would be a risk for the team but Toro Rosso have made it clear they would like to take that risk and place a rookie alongside an experienced driver.

Enter stage left Takuma Sato.

Toro Rosso first tested Sato back in September, so the fact they invited him back again two weeks ago is a sign they are seriously interested in him. He fits the team’s request for an experienced pilot, and Takuma can also drive a Formula One car very quickly.

Wildly, but quickly.

The biggest thing in Sato’s favour though is his nationality. The Red Bull drinks company is looking to expand throughout Asia and is targeting Japan which has one of the largest soft drink markets in the world. Having a popular Japanese star on their payroll would give Red Bull a great chance to accelerate that process.

It might not seem fair to award a Formula One seat on the basis of marketability, but that is what Grand Prix racing is all about for Red Bull. The company spends over a billion dollars on marketing worldwide each year, and the Formula One program falls under that budget. The team is simply a promotional tool for the Red Bull company, and their main motivation to increase drinks sales and not to win F1 races.

The joke has already been made that if Sato is hired to help sell more cans of Red Bull in Japan, they’d better sell enough of them to cover the cost of the front wings he is likely to break.

Sato has a reputation for being an undisciplined driver, and that reputation is rightly justified. He has crashed into world champions, their teammates, his own teammates, and has had trouble with various walls and gravel traps around the world.

Toro Rosso will be aware of that however, and will probably have taken more notice of Sato’s more recent performances with Super Aguri. He appears to have calmed down in the past few years, and might be able to thrive in a team where he doesn’t feel pressure to deliver results for his country.

After all, Lewis Hamilton made an awful lot of mistakes this year and no-one is about to suggest that he is not an awesome Grand Prix driver.

Sato would have to be a favourite for one of the Toro Rosso seats.

It is worth noting however that Honda might be about to inadvertently scupper Sato’s bid to stay in Formula One. That would be hugely ironic given the massive support they have given Takuma throughout his entire career.

Bruno Senna, Lucas Di Grassi, and Rubens Barrichello are all candidates to race alongside Jenson Button next year at Honda. Toro Rosso have expressed an interest in both Senna and Barrichello, so might be able to provide a home for whomever misses out.

Takuma Sato will be hoping that Barrichello stays with his current team, because Rubens would be direct completion for the ‘experienced driver’ role at Toro Rosso.

Rubens may not have the same marketing appeal of Sato but it would be hard to argue against him being a more complete driver. Barrichello is a known quantity after 267 Grands Prix, and would be a very solid and consistent performer. He would be the perfect man to put alongside a rookie such as Buemi.

If Senna comes onto the market things start to look very different. Although it seems hard to imagine Toro Rosso would now take Senna instead of Buemi, they may choose to do just that and partner him with Sato. That pairing would give the team great marketability, along with their desired mix of youth and experience.

In the end, it will almost certainly be Bourdais, Sato, or Barrichello, alongside Buemi or Senna. Sato and Buemi are probably the most likely, but they might not be the most sensible.

Mateschitz has said that Red Bull will confirm their 2009 driver decision before the last F1 test in December, which is only two weeks away, so we don’t have long to wait now.

Only time will tell if Red Bull’s decision is the right one, even if it’s measured in the company’s annual report and not on the racetrack.

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